Viewpoint

01.26.23

What Impact Would a U.S. Debt Default Have on China?

Arthur R. Kroeber
The big political drama in Washington in the next few months will be the fight over the federal debt ceiling. The worst-case scenario is that Congress refuses to raise the ceiling and the U.S. Treasury defaults on its debt. Since U.S. treasury debt...

China’s Role in Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis

Paul Haenle & Anushka Wijesinha from Carnegie China
In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Anushka Wijesinha about the ongoing political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka. The discussion covers the domestic and international causes of Sri Lanka’s debt crisis,...

Viewpoint

07.18.19

‘See, They Are So Happy with Our Generosity!’

Yaqiu Wang
On June 22, in Sihanoukville, a port city in southwest Cambodia, a Chinese-owned building under construction collapsed, killing at least 28 people, all Cambodians. The owner had undertaken the construction without the required permit, and defied...

Where is the Evidence of Debt Traps in Africa?

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
To discuss accusations that China engages in so-called “debt trap diplomacy,” Eric and Cobus spoke with Deborah Brautigam, a Johns Hopkins University Professor and Director of the China-Africa Research Initiative in Washington, D.C. The “debt trap”...

Confused About China’s Belt and Road Agenda? You’re Not Alone.

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
Thirty-seven foreign heads of state came to Beijing this week to take part in the second Belt and Road summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Some leaders, like Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta, came with expectations to sign huge...

Chinese and Africans are Having Totally Different Conversations About Their Relationship

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
Chinese news coverage and African and international reports are often starkly different from one another, even when discussing the same issues. With Chinese and African news consumers reading vastly different perspectives, what can be done to narrow...

Is the Belt and Road Initiative a Bold Economic Agenda or a Political Ploy?

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
In an ongoing series that explores different interpretations of what exactly is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Eric and Cobus are joined by Zhu Zheng, an international affairs columnist for Caixin and a research fellow at the China-Eastern...

African Governments Need to Negotiate Better Deals With China. Here's How They Can Do It.

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
The problem with the “debt trap” theory is that it too often strips Africans of their agency in the negotiating process. That either they don’t know what they are doing or they’re simply negotiating bad deals. While both of those may be true, in...

China’s Economy is Slowing and That’s Really Bad News for Africa

Eric Olander & Jeremy Stevens
Pretty much every major economic indicator suggests that the Chinese economy will continue its downward momentum in 2019. Industrial production, retail sales, and even the once red-hot property market are all showing real signs of weakness. Some...

Whose Problem is Kenya’s Debt: Kenya’s or China’s?

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
Nairobi-based international development economist Anzetse Were suggests in a new paper that Kenya’s leaders, not China, should be the ones held accountable for borrowing too much money without a detailed, transparent plan on how to repay the loans...

China Millennials’ Love of Credit Cards Raises Debt Fears

Tom Hancock and Wang Xueqiao
Financial Times
Mr Wang is part of a generation of young consumers who have rejected the thrifty habits of their elders and become used to spending with borrowed money. Outstanding consumer loans — used for vehicle purchases, holidays, household renovations and...

China’s Effort to Control Debt Loses Steam

Chao Deng and Lingling Wei
Wall Street Journal
China is letting up on its drive to keep a lid on debt growth as it faces a softening economy at home and escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

A U.S. View on China’s So-Called ‘Debtbook Diplomacy’ Agenda

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
For the past year or so, senior U.S. government officials have been accusing China of engaging in so-called “debtbook diplomacy,” a tactic that Washington contends intentionally burdens developing countries with billions of dollars of loans. When...

China’s Massive ‘Belt and Road’ Spending Spree Has Caused Concern around the World, and Now It's China’s Turn to Worry

Christopher Woody
Business Insider
Since announcing its Belt and Road Initiative five years ago, China has spread billions of dollars around Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe, supporting a variety of infrastructure projects and stoking concern about Beijing's growing global sway.

Warning Sounded over China's 'Debtbook Diplomacy'

Helen Davidson
Guardian
Academics identify 16 countries loaned billions that they can’t afford to repay.

With Jail Sentences and Corporate Flameouts, China Is Tackling its Debt

Alexandra Stevenson
New York Times
A Shanghai court imprisoned a tycoon who used a mountain of debt to buy the Waldorf Astoria hotel.

Angola: China’s Risky Gamble in Africa

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
China has loaned Angola an estimated U.S.$60 billion dollars since the two countries established diplomatic relations back in 1983, making it one of the top destinations for Chinese financing in Africa. Angola is especially attractive for the...

Books

04.12.18

China’s Great Wall of Debt

Dinny McMahon
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt: Over the course of a decade spent reporting on the ground in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon gradually came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong.In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system have all become a regular fixture in the press in recent years, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it.Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the Chinese economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers, why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina, why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities, or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over the distribution of table salt.Debt, entrenched vested interests, a frenzy of speculation, and an aging population are all pushing China toward an economic reckoning. China’s Great Wall of Debt unravels an incredibly complex and opaque economy, one whose fortunes—for better or worse—will shape the globe like never before.{chop}

Tillerson’s Last Act: ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ Advice for Africa

Eric Olander & Brooks Spector
There is a certain irony when a U.S. envoy travels to Africa to warn his hosts about the dangers of borrowing money from China. The United States, after all, is the world’s most indebted country and borrows more from China than any other nation in...

Chinese Bank Fined over Multibillion-Dollar Bad-Debt Cover-Up

Mandy Zuo
South China Morning Post
China’s banking regulator has slapped a 462 million yuan (US$72 million) fine on a bank branch over a massive shell company fraud, as Beijing continues to crack down on financial risks.

China Shrugs off Debt Worries as Xi Takes Firmer Economic Grip

New York Times
It’s Xi Jinping’s economy now, and he isn’t too worried about debt.

Founder of China's Embattled LeEco Placed on Debt Blacklist

Engen Tham, Adam Jourdan
Reuters
The high-profile founder of struggling Chinese tech conglomerate LeEco has been placed on an official blacklist of debt defaulters, a further blow to a firm that had spent heavily to compete in areas from smart cars to online entertainment.

China's Debt Levels Pose Stability Risk, Says IMF

Guardian
Fears that China risks being the cause of a fresh global financial crisis have been highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in a hard-hitting warning about the growing debt-dependency of the world’s second biggest economy.

Chinese Shadow Banking Has Slowed — but That's Not as Good as It Seems

Huileng Tan
CNBC
China is on a drive to reduce its reliance on debt, a habit that some experts warn could lead to a global financial crisis.

China to Debtors: Pay up or Be Shamed

Keith Bradsher and Ailin Tang
New York Times
Troubled by huge debts run up by big state companies and politically connected local governments, China is taking steps instead to go after the little guys.

As China Piles on Debt, Consumers Seek a Piece of the Action

Keith Bradsher and Ailin Tang
New York Times
Chinese central bank data shows that consumer loans have grown almost 50 percent since the start of last year, and the International Monetary Fund said it expected China’s household debt as a percentage of its economic output to double by 2022...

China Reclaims Spot as World's Biggest Holder of Treasuries

Andrew Mayeda and Katherine Greifeld
Bloomberg
China reclaimed its position as the top foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries after increasing its holdings for the fifth straight month.China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, notes and bills rose to $1.15 trillion in June, up $44.3 billion from a month earlier...

Debt-Ridden Chinese Giant Now a Shadow of Its Former Size

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
The Han Show here in central China was supposed to turn the city of Wuhan into a leading tourist destination, with a dazzling spectacle of lights, water jets and acrobats by the former creative director of Cirque du Soleil. But the custom-built 2,...

In China, Shoppers Buy Bad Loans Online with Their Groceries

Bloomberg
Among the sneakers, diapers, and pet food for sale on Taobao, China’s biggest e-commerce platform, is a listing that may take up a little more space in the online shopping basket.

Alibaba Predicts Strong Sales in a Sign of Strength from China

New York Times
The Alibaba Group signaled on Thursday that for all the global worries about China’s rising debt and bloated state industries, its economy still enjoys a strong pillar of support: online shoppers.

Chinese Debt in Africa: How Much Is Too Much?

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
China now owns more than half of Kenya’s external debt, and that figure is likely to grow even higher as President Uhuru Kenyatta turns to Beijing to finance large infrastructure projects across the country. Most recently, China completed the first...

China Has a Huge Debt Problem. How Bad Is It?

CNN
Credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded China this week, warning that the country’s financial health is suffering from rising debt and slowing economic growth. It’s the first time the agency has cut China’s rating in nearly three decades.

China’s Downgrade Could Lead to a Mountain of Debt

Bloomberg
The downgrade of China’s debt by Moody’s Investors Service may push Chinese companies to borrow even more money from domestic banks as overseas debt becomes more expensive, increasing risks for the nation’s finance industry.

Caixin Media

05.05.17

Belt and Road: A Symphony in Need of a Strong Conductor

In just a few weeks, the Chinese president will host the Belt and Road summit—Xi Jinping’s landmark program to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Reactions to the project have been, understandably...

China Bankruptcy Cases Surge as Economy Slows

Tom Hancock
Financial Times
Rise in liquidations reflects growing role for courts in tackling ‘zombie’ companies

How China’s Dumping of Treasurys Will Affect U.S. Borrowing Costs

Jon Sindreu
Wall Street Journal
Foreign buyers are holding a smaller share of the debt of the some of the world’s top nations

China’s ‘Silk Road’ Push Stirs Resentment, Protest in Sri Lanka

Voice of America
China signed a deal with Sri Lanka late last year to further develop the strategic port of Hambantota and build a huge industrial zone nearby, a key part of Beijing’s ambitions to create a modern-day “Silk Road” across Asia.

China Is Facing a Catch-22 Dilemma

Jacob Shapiro
Business Insider
A subsidiary of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has recently reached deals with seven Chinese state-owned enterprises to convert about 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) of unpaid loans into equity shares.

China’s Economy Grows Strongly, Yet Central Bank Eases Policy

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
China’s economy firmly hit its growth target last year, but this is China, where figures are sometimes doubted and where economists look for signs of strain underneath the numbers.

China Banks Extend Record 12.65 Trillion Yuan in Loans in 2016 as Debt Worries Mount

Sue-Lin Wong and Lusha Zhang
Reuters
China’s banks extended a record 12.56 trillion yuan ($1.82 trillion) of loans in 2016 as the government encouraged more credit-fueled stimulus to meet its economic growth target

China Inc.’s Large Dollar Debts Fuel Beijing’s Efforts to Curb Yuan Plunge

Ling Ling Wei
Wall Street Journal
The large pile of foreign debt owed by Chinese companies, from state-owned banks to airlines, is giving added impetus to Beijing’s efforts to keep the yuan from falling too steeply against the rallying dollar.

Heralding Social, Financial Change, China Aims Blow at Iron Rice Bowl

David Stanway
Reuters
China has ordered state firms to smash the decades-old system of providing cradle-to-grave welfare support, known as the country's "iron rice bowl"

China Central Bank Extends Emergency Loans to Financial Firms

Rachel Rosenthal and Yifan Xie
Wall Street Journal
Extends hundreds of billions of yuan in loans to ease liquidity crunch, continuing debt selloff

Meet the Ma Family: How Millennials are Changing the Way China Thinks About Money

Engen Tham and Adam Jourdan
Reuters
China's millennials - roughly those aged between 18 and 35 - are embracing debt like never before

In China, Trump-Style Infrastructure Partnerships are Used to Hide Debt

James T. Areddy
Wall Street Journal
To pay for a highway project, Wenling’s government teamed up with Bank of China to create an ‘industrial fund’ that pulls in money from ordinary investors

China’s Latest Debt Crackdown Just Delays More Serious Action

Anjani Trivedi
Wall Street Journal
China’s dilemma: how to manage a huge debt mound while maintaining loose monetary policy

Relax, China’s Banks Aren’t About to Have a Meltdown

Tom Holland
South China Morning Post
There are reasons to be worried about China’s debt, but the risk of a 2008-style crisis is not one of them.

China Rethinks Its Alliance With Reeling Venezuela

Kejal Vyas
Wall Street Journal
Concerns prompted emergency meetings between the Chinese envoy and state companies.

Media

08.25.16

China Analysts Should Talk to Each Other, Not at Each Other

Scott Kennedy
On August 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its annual report card on China’s economy and gave the country mixed grades, finding that its “economic transition will continue to be complex, challenging, and potentially bumpy.” In...

China Shares Hit Seven-Month High; World Yields Keep Falling

Marc Jones
Reuters
Chinese stocks helped offset news that Japan’s economic growth had ground to a halt.

Caixin Media

08.09.16

China's New 'Bad Loan' Managers: Savvy Saviors or Riskier than Ever?

As China's economy slows and defaults rise, 'bad loan' managers say they spot an opportunity to pick up bargains, because lenders are eager to shed toxic debt that might otherwise poison the broader financial system. Yet questions...

Conversation

05.24.16

How Much Debt Is Too Much in China?

Yukon Huang, Houze Song & more
In the first quarter of 2016, Chinese debt rose to 237 percent of GDP—a level comparable to that of the U.S. or the Eurozone and yet much larger than that of most developing economies, according to analysis by The Financial Times. Additionally,...

China Party Mouthpiece Echoes Soros' Debt Fears

Tom Mitchell
Financial Times
‘Authoritative’ source warns party paper of ‘deadly’ risk to economy.

Caixin Media

04.05.16

No Point in Ramping Up Personal Debt to Help Property Market

Having banks and local governments deleverage and trim overcapacity are part and parcel with central government efforts to maintain stable growth by nurturing the supply side of the economy. But even as this is happening, the housing market has been...

Africa Feels the Chill of China’s Cooling Economy

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
It hasn’t even been a month since Chinese president Xi Jinping was in South Africa for the triennial Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) confab where he unveiled a massive $60 billion financial package. Oh how those were innocent, halcyon days...

Great Fall of China Sinks World Stocks, Dollar

Sinead Carew
Reuters
A near 9-percent dive in China shares and a sharp drop in the dollar and major commodities sent investors rushing for the exit.

Why it is Better to Stay Out of China A-shares

John Authers
Financial Times
Where did the argument for China A-shares go? In the last two weeks the case for the booming stock market of mainland China has turned at least two somersaults.

Caixin Media

01.20.15

Good Times Are Over for Local Governments

Two pieces of recent news have piqued the public's interest. First, local governments reported their latest debt figures to the Ministry of Finance. The numbers have not been made public, but sources say many officials reported large amounts in...

Features

12.10.14

Why Beijing’s Troubles Could Get a Lot Worse

from Barron’s
Few foreigners know China as intimately as Anne Stevenson-Yang does. She has spent the bulk of her professional life there since first arriving in 1985, working as a journalist, magazine publisher, and software executive, with stints in between...

Ministry Said to Propose Local Governments Issuing Bonds to Cover Debts

Huo Kan
Outstanding central and local government debt totaled 20.7 trillion yuan at the end of June last year, data from the National Audit Office show.