Arthur R. Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm focusing on China and its global impact, with offices in Beijing and Hong Kong. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst in China, Taiwan, and India. He is an Adjunct Professor of Economics at the New York University Stern School of Business, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. The second edition of his book China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know was published by Oxford University Press in 2020.
Last Updated: February 16, 2024
Conversation
11.04.24
How Much Will New Stimulus Improve China’s Economic Outlook?
After months of downbeat economic news and little action from the Chinese government, Beijing has announced a slew of stimulus measures. Are the stimulus measures enough to make a difference and are they going to work as long as secular trends like...
Conversation
02.16.24
It’s Grim out There: China’s Economy in the Year of the Dragon
Some observers have been predicting an economic collapse in China for decades. Others have long predicted that China would be stuck in a middle-income trap or some other type of economic stagnation. Might some of these predictions come true this...
Viewpoint
01.26.23
What Impact Would a U.S. Debt Default Have on China?
The big political drama in Washington in the next few months will be the fight over the federal debt ceiling. The worst-case scenario is that Congress refuses to raise the ceiling and the U.S. Treasury defaults on its debt. Since U.S. treasury debt...
Conversation
02.26.20
How Will Coronavirus Impact China in the Long Term?
As numbers of new infections begin to diminish, the People’s Republic of China is beginning to claim victory in its battle with the coronavirus. But with over 700 million people—10 percent of the world’s population—now living under lockdown, the...
Conversation
08.16.17
Trump Says He Wants Fairer Trade with China. Will His Latest Move Work?
On Monday, Donald Trump returned to Washington from his summer vacation for the public signing of an executive order requesting that the United States Trade Representative begin a review to determine wether the U.S. should investigate China over...
Conversation
07.08.16
Why Is There So Much Talk of China’s Bleeding Money?
China has seen its foreign reserves depleted for months, but economists don’t agree about why: Is it because Chinese people are buying offshore assets, such as real estate? Because Chinese companies are paying down their foreign debt? Or both? Or is...
Sinica Podcast
06.20.16
Arthur Kroeber vs. the Conventional Wisdom
In this episode of Sinica, we present an in-depth interview with Arthur Kroeber, the founding partner and head of research for Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and the editor-in-chief of its journal, China Economic...
Conversation
01.27.16
Is George Soros Right that China’s Headed for a Hard Landing?
On Tuesday in an article headlined, “Declaring War on China’s Currency? Ha ha,” the People’s Daily attacked billionaire investor George Soros for suggesting he might short the renminbi. The Chinese currency has dropped 5.7 percent since August when...
Conversation
12.03.15
Does the Renminbi’s Elevation to Global Currency Matter?
On November 30, the International Monetary Fund approved the Chinese renminbi, also known as the yuan, as one of the world’s leading currencies, underscoring the country’s rising global financial importance. What’s behind the decision and what...
Conversation
11.02.15
How Far Have China’s Economic Reforms Come over the Past Year?
As the Chinese Communist Party leadership wrapped up its Fifth Plenum, the meeting at which the Party’s leadership set the Five Year Plan that will shape economic policy through 2020, what progress has been made on the “comprehensive deepening” of...
Conversation
10.06.15
What Will the TPP Mean for China?
On Monday, the U.S., Japan, and ten other countries concluded negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP—the largest regional trade accord in history. If approved, the agreement will set new terms for the nearly $28 trillion in trade and...
Conversation
08.25.15
Is the Bloom Off the Rose of China’s Economic Miracle?
On Monday, August 24, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 8.5 percent, its second such steep fall since late July, and its worst since 2007. On Tuesday, stocks fell an additional 7.6 percent. The steep slide translates into more than $4 trillion in...