Keith Hand

Keith Hand is a Professor of Law at the University of California, Hastings College of the Law. His research focuses on legal reform in the People’s Republic of China, with particular attention to constitutional law, criminal justice, and citizen efforts to use the law to promote legal, social, and political change. After graduating from the University of Washington School of Law, Professor Hand worked as a corporate attorney at the New York office of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison and then served as senior counsel to the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China. After leaving Capitol Hill, he served as Beijing Director, Senior Fellow, and Lecturer-in-Law at Yale Law School’s China Law Center. During his tenure with the Center, Professor Hand was a visiting scholar at Peking University Law School and worked with Chinese courts, government agencies, and law schools to implement cooperative legal reform projects. Professor Hand holds a J.D. and an M.A. in China Studies from the University of Washington and a B.A. from Whitman College. He was named a National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Public Intellectuals Fellow in 2011.

The Long Soft Fall in Chinese Growth

Business Realities, Risks and Opportunities

As recently as the fourth quarter of 2013, there were few detractors from an optimistic assessment of China’s prospects to achieve a “soft landing” and continue to enjoy relatively stable growth in the 7 to 8 percent range for the next 10 years and more. According to that baseline extrapolation China would become the world’s largest economy and consumer market in only a few years’ time. This consensus scenario was the key projection promoted by China’s state-run media, and it was generally passed on through the global business media as well. In simplest terms, it foresaw a China that had reached a level of maturity where it was subject to normal downturns and corrections that were familiar to investors and analysts in developed economies around the world. By 2010, China’s leaders had embraced the global “soft landing” vs. “hard landing” framework, and a year ago reported with considerable satisfaction that a “soft landing” had been achieved.

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The Conference Board