Is China a Threat to the U.S. Economy?

The rise of China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of only twenty-eight years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest economic success stories in modern times. From 1979 (when economic reforms were first introduced) to 2006, China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 9.7 percent, the size of its economy increased over elevenfold, its real per capita GDP grew over eightfold, and its world ranking for total trade rose from 27th to 3rd. By some measurements, China has become the world’s second-largest economy, and it could be the largest within a decade. For the United States, China is now its second largest trading partner, its fourth-largest export market, and its second-largest source of imports. To date, the growth in Chinese exports appears to have come partly at the expense of Asian competitors. However, the emergence of China as a major economic superpower has raised concern among many U.S. policymakers, who worry that China’s rise means America’s relative decline. This report examines the implications (both challenges and opportunities) for the U.S. economy from China’s rapid economic growth and its emergence as a major economic power. It also describes congressional approaches for dealing with various Chinese economic policies deemed damaging to various U.S. economic sectors.

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The State of Wildlife Trade in China

Information on the Trade in Wild Animals and Plants in China 2007

This edition aims to highlight wildlife trade trends in threatened and at-risk wildlife from the past year, with an emphasis on the impact of China’s consumption on globally important biodiversity ‘hotspots.’ Surveys in 2007 found that while illegal trade in ivory continues to take place in China, it has taken a step in the right direction as compared to 2006 surveys. This issue also takes a look at the expanding international trade in Chinese traditional medicine, which is growing at any annual rate of 10%. The results of a survey on wild meats are also included in this year’s report. General consumption of wild animals slowed with SARS in 2003, a recent survey of wild animals sold in five cities in southern China has revealed the tradition has once again gained in popularity.

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World Wildlife

China’s Trade with the United States and the World

As imports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have surged in recent years, posing a threat to some U.S. industries and manufacturing employment, Congress has begun to focus on not only access to the Chinese market and intellectual property rights (IPO) protection, but also the mounting U.S. trade deficit with China as well as allegations that China is selling its products on the international market at below cost (dumping), engaging in “currency manipulation,” and exploiting its workers for economic gain. This report provides a quantitative framework for policy considerations dealing with U.S. trade with China. It provides basic data and analysis of China’s international trade with the United States and other countries. Charts showing import trends by sector for the United States highlight China’s growing market shares in many industries and also show import shares for Japan, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

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China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks, but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China's monetary strategy and enhancing the role of interest rates in its conduct. The authors advocate adoption of an eclectic strategy involving the monitoring of several indicators, and of a short-term interest rate as the operational target. The PBC should be granted discretion to change its policy rate, and there are no technical obstacles for such a move to occur in the near future.

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Economy

Das (Wasted) Kapital: Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China

Based on a survey that covers a stratified random sample of 12,400 firms in 120 cities in China with firm-level accounting information for 2002-2004, the authors examine the presence of systematic distortions in capital allocation that result in uneven marginal returns to capital across firm ownership, regions, and sectors. Their paper provides a systematic comparison of investment efficiency among wholly and partially state-owned, wholly and partially foreign owned, and domestic privately owned firms, conditioning on their sector, location, and size characteristics. Even after a quarter-of-century of reforms, state-owned firms still have significantly lower returns to capital, on average, than domestic private or foreign-owned firms. Similarly, certain regions and sectors have consistently lower returns to capital than other regions and sectors. If China succeeds in allocating its capital more efficiently, it could reduce its investment intensity by 5 percent of GDP without sacrificing its economic growth (and hence deliver a greater improvement to its citizens' living standard).

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Economy