November 2006

China and the United States have been aiming their nuclear weapons at each other for decades, but now—with the absence of a definitive enemy such as the Soviet Union—the United States has elevated China to fill the void to help justify modernizing its armed forces in general, and its nuclear forces in particular. China, too, uses the United States as a rationale for modernizing its forces, and the two nations are becoming increasingly locked into a pattern of action-and-reaction reminiscent of the Cold War. To better understand the nuclear relationship between China and the United States, the dynamics that drive it, and its potential consequences, we first examine Chinese nuclear forces in some detail, including their past development, their current status, and what future programs are underway according to the U.S. government's assessments and other sources. We then provide a history of U.S. nuclear targeting of China—although much is still shrouded in secrecy, and conclude by simulating two hypothetical nuclear strike scenarios that are likely to be close approximations of actual war plans: a U.S. strike against Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile silos and a Chinese strike against U.S. cities.