October 2006

The U.S. policy framework for Taiwan was laid down in 1979 when Washington severed official relations with the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan and instead recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate Chinese government. The basics of that policy shift—the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.China communiques, and the so-called “six assurances” toward Taiwan—remain in place today. But many other factors have changed dramatically. The PRC itself is a rising global economic power scarcely resembling the country it was at the Nixon opening in the 1970s. U.S. economic and political relations with the PRC have expanded and become more diverse, playing a more complex role now than they did then in U.S. calculations of its own interests. The PRC’s military has grown as well, with much of its strategic planning focusing on a Taiwan contingency. Taiwan, once an authoritarian one-party government under martial law, has become a fully functioning democracy. Some observers suggest that as the PRC and Taiwan have evolved, the original U.S. policy framework has grown increasingly irrelevant; they argue it needs to be reassessed or scrapped. Others hold that the very constancy of the U.S. policy framework is crucial in managing U.S. relations with both governments; they argue it needs to be maintained. This report evaluates the situation and reflects trends as of fall 2006.